Greedy politicians without strategies

THE TWISTER

I was enjoying a blend of red wine and Coke at one of the hotel bars in Blantyre at the weekend when a pair sitting next to me commenced a dialogue on the need for regime change.

“Our prayer is that these arrogant politicians should go in 2014, hence we need to encourage Malawians to vote wisely,” one of them exclaimed.

“You are right, with this crop of obstinate politicians who have no welfare of Malawians at heart, we should brace ourselves for economic hardships up to 2014 when a new leader will be elected to solve these woes,” said the other.

The debate continued with their views on the likely opposition leaders who can easily take over power.

“I wish Baba JZU Tembo will see some sense of handing over the mantle to Henry Phoya and pair him with an experienced politician like Louis Chimango,” one of them suggested.

The other responded: “I believe if UDF was not divided it could have easily made it into power. But divided as it is, it should rule itself out.”

The two went on to explain that Vice President Joyce Banda has to do a lot of soul searching if she is to win in 2014.

“The sympathy vote alone can not result in her victory, Mai Banda has to rebrand herself as a true democrat otherwise a number of people who have worked with her in the past have so many issues with her,” the other replied.

I was tempted to ask what issues have people with Joyce Banda but I kept listening while sipping my diluted red wine.

“Imagine that all opposition leaders including Joyce, Atupele, Tembo, Friday Jumbe, Mark Katsonga Phiri, Kamuzu Chibambo decided to contest, can an opposition figure win elections?” one of them asked.

The other replied: “The divided opposition will give chance to Peter Mutharika to win the elections with ease. The best the opposition leaders can do is to unite, unfortunately most of them are so greedy and power hungry that their demand would be for them to be presidential candidate and their alliance partners should gun for the position of running mate.”

Deep-down my heart, I entirely agreed with the view that it is easy to change the regime in 2014 if the opposition leaders can do away with their political egocentrism, greed and overestimating their popularity. But lo, it is extremely difficult to talk of tangible political alliances in Malawi. Can Joyce Banda, Atupele Muluzi, John Tembo and Friday Jumbe accept that they should not be presidential candidates and instead they should support their alliance leader? I have my serious doubts because each one of them fooled by the undecided voters who wear their party colours at their rallies assumes that they are the most popular opposition leaders in the country.

Some women in my home village recently shocked me when they told me that they have political colours of most parties in the country, which means every party counts them as their members. Such political chameleons fool politicians on their party membership and popularity.

Issues of political chameleons aside, I have no doubt that the ambition of every opposition party is to get into power and this also means that the wish of most leaders of opposition parties is to become state presidents of our nation.
But in a nation where there are over 40 political parties, even if the ruling party loses elections, it is not possible for all the 40 leaders of opposition parties to become heads of state. It’s only one of them who can be lucky to become a head of state.

Even for the most popular opposition leader, it is not easy to beat the ruling party’s political machinations to ascend into power. The advantage of the incumbency, which is manifested in the control of most state resources and even setting up an apparatus for rigging the elections, works against the opposition.

What I am twisting here?

The goal or general objective of those in opposition is to get into power, unfortunately while most of them can sing about their goal day and night, none of them can tell you five smart strategies they have put in place to achieve their goal or objective. All of them will tell you some cheap strategies such as “the rallies we are addressing are being patronised by many people. That is a sign that we are a popular opposition party geared to win 2014 elections.”

Despite having strategies full of mediocrity, the disorganised and divided opposition parties will cry foul when the elections are won or rigged by the ruling party.

As far as I am concerned winning an election is more than addressing rallies in villages, townships and even at Njamba, Masintha and Katoto Freedom Parks.

The point is Malawians might be tired with the current regime because of its numerous follies manifesting themselves through forex, fuel, drug and food shortages, but they will be let down by the weak and divided opposition in 2014.

With more than ten faces of presidential candidates on the ballot paper, the opposition will split their votes and make the ruling party candidate win the elections with ease.

Imagine there are 4 million eligible voters and the majority of them, 3 million voters want regime change and the minority of them (one million) are ruling party diehards. If there is an opposition alliance, the opposition will win as 3 million voters outnumber the ruling party’s one million voters.

But imagine that Tembo, Atupele , Jumbe, and Banda assume that they are popular oppsotion figures and can win on their own, what happens? They will share the 3 million opposition votes amongst themselves. On average each one of them will get 750,000 votes. Though the opposition voters in total are 3 million, but in that scenario Peter Mutharika will win because with one million votes, he has beaten them all and simple majority rule demands that he is our next president. This is how opposition parties lose elections in Africa. It is because of the self-centredness and political ravenousness which infuriate their supporters who crave for change.

The point is while most opposition leaders hate alliances if they are not chosen as presidential candidates for their coalitions, their hatred for political cooperation is what sentences them to many years in opposition. Formation of strategic political alliances is one of the strategies of boosting chances of winning an election. Even if the ruling party wants to retain power political alliance is one of the strategies they can use to get some votes from the opposition.

The take home message is that being angry and frustrated with the current regime does not translate into regime change if opposition parties have no tangible strategies. Addressing rallies and shouting slogans for change or future prosperity are not the only strategies that can propel one into power.

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