Malawi-Mozambique: Shire-Zambezi Waterway should not be politicised

The much publicised Nsanje World Inland Port has been reduced to a concrete quay with a couple of dozen mooring posts. Instead of seeing cargo ships docking at Nsanje River Port what one sees are a few fishermen peddling their wooden dug-out canoes through the shadowy waters of the mighty Shire River.

Unlike former president, the late Bingu wa Mutharika who had strong faith that the construction of an inland port at Nsanje meant linking land-locked Malawi with the Indian Ocean port of Chinde, 238 kilometres away in neighbouring Mozambique, through the Shire-Zambezi Waterway project, current crop of leaders in power are almost silent about the development of port.

Worse still, some cynical politicians ridicule the project and brand it as a white elephant. From the outbursts of some leaders in power, it is obvious that they do not want to see the project succeed. Others even wish the project was abandoned. Their political fear is that if the project comes to realisation, it is the late Mutharika who will take credit. That is the ugly face of our partisan politics where projects are personalised instead of analysing or evaluating them on the basis of their importance.

While as a nation, we are seemingly ignoring the project, it is interesting to learn that Southern Africa Development Community (Sadc) regards it as a priority regional project and more activities are happening now than before behind the scenes.

According to the Director of Infrastructure and Services at Sadc Secretariat, Remmy Makumbe the feasibility study that stands in the way before implementation of the project would take up to 18 months to the end of 2014 before countries involved, partners and private sector discuss the infrastructure needs, investment levels and implementation plan.

As a matter of fact, Sadc has partnered with the Common Market for East and Central Africa (Comesa) for the feasibility study and funds have already been pumped into the project.

Despite the initial challenges and misunderstandings that punctuated the initiation of the project, Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia need to think seriously about its benefits. For landlocked Malawi, the obvious benefit of the project is the reduction of the high transport costs of importing and exporting goods by road and rail via the Mozambican port city of Beria - a round trip of about 1,200 kilometres.  Whether one likes it or not, if successfully implemented, the project will offer a cheap route to the Indian ocean for landlocked Malawi and even for Zambia and benefit some parts of Mozambique.

It is our hope that following Sadc’s observation and update on the Shire-Zambezi waterway, partisan politics will give way to economic sanity so that as a nation we can still regard the project as a priority.

As others have recently observed Malawi desperately needs a capable and developmental state which is capable to formulate and implement policies and projects that serve the national interest. The reduction of transport costs by an estimated 50 to 60 percent will benefit all Malawians and hence it is a mistake to politicise such a long term beneficial project.

When Shire-Zambezi Waterway is going to become a reality, it is Malawians who will benefit.

Malawi: The fall of Prophet Moses and leadership

THE TWISTER

BY BRIAN LIGOMEKA

One outstanding mark which sets the Bible apart from other religious books is its honesty in exposing the sins of its prophets and chosen people.

The tale of Prophet Moses inspires me. Besides the Bible, Islamic and Judaism books also acknowledge the existence, the miracles and the work of Moses. Despite his great feats as one of the greatest Old Testament prophets, the Bible does not ignore his scandals including the one that led to his downfall.

Moses amazing story demonstrates that he was used as a vessel of God throughout his life, but as a human being he had his own weaknesses.

Leaders of all shades should admit that as human beings they have their own shortfalls. As His Grace, Bishop Joseph Mukasa Zuza once said people including leaders who do not admit their shortfalls are idiots. In his famous sermon, the bishop said: “All of us have strengths and weaknesses. What we need to do is to accept our weaknesses and find ways and means to turn them into strengths. We can always improve for the better. If we are open to this, God will help us.”

He added: “My dear brothers and sisters, the person who thinks and believes that he or she is perfect is actually the most stupid and foolish person. In Chichewa and Tumbuka we call such people as chitsiru chamunthu, (a veritable idiot) or chindere chakufikapo. Do we want to be called chitsiru or chindere because we think and believe we’re perfect and therefore we have all the best solutions for the storm that is passing through our country? Fellow Malawians, let us not become stupid people.”

The issue is leaders should acknowledge their weaknesses and if they do not control them they can fall from grace the way the Biblical Moses did.  

There are many lessons which leaders can learn from the downfall of Moses. The lessons can help leaders to deliver and face challenges with dignity instead of behaving like dogs with rabies.

 Instead of banging tables, arresting their critics or barking at nothing like rabid dogs, leaders can change their approach and know how to handle the pressure of difficulties.

 The road to success is always full of challenges and hence leaders should realise that facing pressure is part of the game of power. The Bible in Numbers 20:1-5, tells a story of how Moses faced the pressure from the people he was leading while in the desert on their way to the Promised Land.

While our current leaders are facing some pressure from the citizenry because of forex and fuel shortages, the problem of water shortage haunted Moses and his subjects in the wilderness. The water shortage problem was so acute that when the Israelites reached Kadesh, there was a mass protest.

Much as water shortage is common occurrence in a desert, theologians drag God into the matter saying the Almighty One wanted to test the faith of his chosen people. God is reported to have created the water crisis deliberately to prop up his people’s faith in Him. He wanted to demonstrate his presence, ability, power and promptness to come to their rescue in their desperate moment of need.

By calculatingly creating a water shortage, God wanted his chosen people to continue depending on Him.

But who says God’s chosen people do not lose their patience? At Kadesh, the Bible explains that Moses received pressure from all over with others acting like rebels. Some people were perhaps more vocal than the current leaders of our civil society organisations, who give sleepless nights our own Mose wa Lero over fuel and forex shortages.

Like what happened on July 20 during the nationwide anti-government protests, Moses and his de facto Prime Minister Aaron faced stiff opposition and lots of criticisms.

Numbers 20: 3 reports that during their protests, the people strove with Moses, saying: “We wish that we had died when our brothers died before Yahweh.”

In verses 4 and 5, in their fury, the critics questioned Moses' motives and strategies that resulted in their continued suffering in the wilderness.

Since that was not the first time to face such pressure Moses and Aaron turned to God to seek His usual help.

The almighty God as expected had answers. He gave Moses and Aaron exact prescriptions on how to go about in solving their challenges. It is interesting that even in times of Moses, there were conditions that were prescribed to solve their challenges in the same way IMF, World Bank and donors offer prescriptions to countries facing financial challenges. The bitter IMF prescriptions include currency devaluation. For those nations that fail to pay their foreign bills, IMF offers them financing in balance of payments and assists them in stabilisation of their economies, and restoration of sustainable economic growth.

Back in the wilderness, there were also prescriptions. Moses was explicitly told to take the rod and to assemble the congregation. The final prescription was that both Moses and Aaron were to speak to the rock.

The interesting part is God’s command to Moses to take ‘the rod’ with him, but not use it as was the case in the previous miracles involving water.

Moses took the holy rod and gathered the assembly in front of the rock. He said to them, "Listen, you rebels, must we bring you water out of this rock?" Then he raised his arm and struck the rock twice with his rod.

 Water gushed out, and the community and their livestock drank with happiness.

Is Moses the only leader to call his people names when under pressure? Not at all. Malawians know of leaders who call their own people stupid or unemployable citizens. They also know leaders who call donors names such as colonialists.

Is Moses the only leader to ignore prescriptions? Not at all! Malawians know of power-intoxicated leaders who despise sound economic prescriptions that can bail Malawi out of its woes. That’s the story for another day.

But what is the wages of failing to listen to sound advice?

Numbers 20:12 quotes God as saying to Moses: “Because you did not trust me enough to demonstrate my holiness to the people of Israel, you will not lead them into the land I am giving them!”

Moses was punished because of his lack of complete trust in God’s command. Instead he displayed his exasperation, temper and his astonishing egotism.

Like modern leaders who bang tables in closed meetings or speak at podiums with arrogance as if they are intoxicated with whiskey by exhibiting their impatience, anger, self-exaltation and know-it-all attitude the Biblical Moses sinned against God. His punishment was that he would not set his feet in the Promised Land.

Writing on a blog one Barbara White once observed: “Good leaders are tolerant of ambiguity and remain calm, composed and steadfast to the main purpose. Storms, emotions, and crises come and go and a good leader takes these as part of the journey and keeps a cool head.”

When you have leaders who are bundles of emotions, who bark at the moon and fear non-existent coups and illusory mass protests, just know that like Biblical Moses they will never set their feet on the Promised Land.

Malawi: The fall of a dictator

THE TWISTER

BY BRIAN LIGOMEKA

When some political lunatics are hurling insults at the clergy or religious groupings, I always weep for them. Such insults are the genesis of their downfall. Romania, a nation located at the crossroads of Central and Southeastern Europe, had a tyrant named Nicolae Ceausescu, who in his dictatorial fantasy thought he could deal with the clergy the way he dealt with all his critics. He learnt a fatal lesson.

Let me tell the story in this way. It was in March 1989 when a parish priest Laszlo Tokes in Romania faced eviction from his apartment. His crime was that he had earlier preached against the policy of ‘systemisation,’ thus the restructuring of towns and villages which was ordered by the Romanian autocratic president Nicolae Ceausescu.

The priest refused to vacate his house and his action provoked the wrath of the dictator’s secret police, the notorious Securitate. The row between the tyrant and the man of God broke out and as expected the man of God had the full backing of the laity.

As the row continued, by December 1989, it was not only his parishioners who were guarding his house; members of the general public also joined the protests and the surrounding streets were swelling.

What followed over the next few weeks, overshadowed Pastor Tokes personal story of eviction. Uncontrollable mass protests led to the downfall of the once-mighty Ceausescu regime.

Guess what happened to the dictator? He attempted to flee the country but was arrested and shot by a firing squad together with his wife, Elena. Don’t ask me why Elena was shot dead because the answer I can give is that some First Ladies are cruel, greedy and nefarious. Some dictators even become worse because of the venomous pillow advice they get from their materialistic bed mates.

The ranting of some dictators at public podiums does not only bring me memories of the Romanian incident but also the fall of the self-imposed ‘African King of Kings’  who is none other than the longest serving leader of the Arab world, Muammar Gaddafi. Like few dictators that are remaining on the continent, who when intoxicated with power, arrogance and egotism, assume that they cannot be smoked out of their state houses Gaddafi, had similar illusions.

Though the writing was clear on the wall that his popularity has waned, Gaddafi vowed that he would never resign from his position or surrender.

The story of his end is well known. He was killed like a rabid dog. His own citizens called him ‘a rat’ as they fished him from a drain where he was hiding.

It was unbelievable. The same Gaddafi, who throughout the mass protests of his people was defiant, long at last, asked for mercy when he was captured. “Don’t shoot, don’t shoot,” he pleaded.

His calls for mercy landed on deaf ears. He was killed in a disgraceful manner with some reports claiming he was kicked by civilian-turned rebel fighters who captured him and a shoe was waved in front of a wounded Gaddafi, which is considered a sign of greatest dishonour in Libya.

But what really triggered his downfall? The arrest of a human rights activist Fethi Tarbel in Benghazi! It is a lesson to dictators that continued arrest of critics can trigger their downfall.

The fall of dictators has a pattern which is triggered by the masses loss of confidence and trust in them and their autocratic policies.  That is followed by their ranting against criticism and opposition while overestimating their importance. Foolishly most of them believe that with the security forces on their side, they cannot lose power hence statements like those uttered by Gaddafi prior to his downfall. He was once quoted as saying: “I would hunt down the rats (protesters) inch by inch, room by room, home by home, alley by alley.”

What he forgot was that like all dictators, though he was in power, he had lost legitimacy. Dictators can be in power without public legitimacy and trust of their people, hence their tact of trying to consolidate their power through arrests of opposition leaders, human rights activists and other critics.

I hear when the dictators learn that opposition figures and critics have been arrested, they celebrate as in their political foolishness they assume they have weakened the opposition and suppressed dissent, not knowing that the arrest strengthen those in opposition.

It is not surprising that at the climax of autocracy, instead of governing with their own wisdom and using sound advice from their ministers and strategists, dictators govern the masses with arrogance, brutality, anger and cherish in being with fed poisoned lies from their minions. In terms of succession, their strategy is handover power to their brothers, sons, sisters and cousins.

When you see a leader being so arrogant and overconfident just know that his downfall is eminent. Professor Gavin Kennedy of Edinburgh Business School, in his book Influence observed: “Arrogance, overconfidence, defiance and non relevant memories of past victories over rivals are so common in the political end games that signal the demise of men and women who overstayed their welcome that it is a wonder so many wise, experienced and capable people suffer the public ignominy of a boardroom coup. If they did see the writing on the wall, why did they not quit while they were still ahead?”

While Professor Gavin wrote his book in 2000 as a course material for students pursuing MBA studies, his observation is very relevant. Who can dispute that arrogance, over-confidence, defiance and non relevant memories of past victories over rivals are so common in the political end games that are signalling the demise of leaders who have overstayed their welcome.

We have politicians who think they are still relevant just because they won last elections. They always sing of their few achievements of the past. Arrogance has blinded them so much that they do not even realise they are on their way to their political deathbed and nobody who is suffering at the moment because of their reckless policies is interested in their so-called past achievements.

Malawi: Reject the devaluation pill and die of inflation

Reject devaluation pill

and die of inflation

BY BRIAN LIGOMEKA

THE TWISTER

I have just realised that Malawi has hundreds of economic commentators. Some party leaders and media houses have started giving platforms to witchdoctors, traditional leaders, grave diggers and minibus touts to give lectures to the masses on issues of the economy.

 Out of the blue, every Jim and Jack who can parrot the cliché: “Devaluation is evil because it causes price increases,” is now an economic commentator.

The mere fact that grave diggers, minibus touts and witchdoctors are paraded and given media space to make a huge joke of themselves when commenting on devaluation, demonstrates that the economy is in a mess. If all was well, grave diggers would have been busy concentrating on the noble work in grave yards, while witchdoctors would have been busy looking for potent herbs in the bush and not anchoring panel discussions on devaluation.

I am not sure whether traditional leaders, witchdoctors and minibus touts in other countries are offered podiums and media space to speak as if they are fathers of economics, the way Milton Friedman or Adam Smith are regarded.

While the new-availed commentators believe macro-economics is all about devaluation, none of them seems to have capacity to comment on other important economic fundamentals.

 As far as they are concerned economic commentary is about demonisation and denunciation of devaluation. I have no problems with their criticisms because I know devaluation has its own merits and demerits, but what is irritating is to be ranting if as if micro and macro-economics only revolves around devaluation.

Everybody can chant anti-devaluation choruses at podiums, in news bulletins and phone in programmes, but there are other economic beasts which will haunt Malawians, more than currency devaluation.

Anti-devaluation campaigners can stand on mountain tops to declare that devaluation triggers price increases. But general price increases or inflation as it is called in economic is not only caused by the much-hated devaluation alone.

There are other causes. Some causes are perpetrated by idiotic and nonsensical fiscal and monetary policies by arrogant leaders.

If I were a geography teacher in primary school, I would have taught my students that devaluation is like a rivulet (tributary) emptying its water in a crocodile-infested, deep and huge-river called inflation. Strangely Malawians tremble at the sight of the stream called devaluation instead of being equally scared to the bone at the sight of inflation, whose consequences to the urbanites and the villagers, the employed and the unemployed, the industry and even projects are dire.

What is inflation? Forget about the jargonistic textbook definition. Simply, put inflation is when K1000 which used to buy a 50 kilogramme bag of maize in March last year, cannot do the same this year and instead you need K3000 to buy the same bag because the price has gone up. While this is a reality, others assume a strong Kwacha can prevent prices of goods from going up.

If you love usipa like I do, inflation is when the K1165 which was buying 1 kg of usipa from Limbe Market last year is not able to do so and instead you need a K2,000 to buy the same quantity of usipa. In this scenario no one should lie to you that the strong kwacha is protecting Malawians from price increases, because it is miserably failing to do so.

Even those who love a cup of tea are hard hit because with K120 last year they were able to buy a loaf of bread, but this year the same amount is not enough to buy a loaf of bread. They now need K200.  Courtesy of the same inflation, 1kg of sugar which was going at K165 is now K200.

Traditional leaders can be paraded at podiums and on TV to mock devaluation, but when returning to their homes, inflation will spit fire at them as the price of fuel and bus fares is up and they will feel the pinch of exorbitant transport costs.

Do you remember how inflation affected our cousins in Zimbabwe?

Continued inflation coupled with the lack of forex resulted in loss of confidence in their local currency. The situation that prevailed in Zimbabwe was a good example of how high inflation and later hyperinflation resulted in the citizenry, companies and entrepreneurs lose their confidence in Zimbabwe dollars.

Others have already lost confidence in Malawi Kwacha and our economy. If you don’t believe it, just know that Ethiopian Airways, Kenyan Airways and some other companies are not accepting Malawi Kwacha preferring payments to be made to them in dollars.

Just few days ago the local manager of South African Airways was also complaining how forex shortage is preventing them from  repatriating what is due to their head office. Don’t ask me their next move. This is happening when anti-devaluation campaigners continue to assume the Kwacha is a strong and a much-sought after currency.

By the way, how can a strong currency have its highest denomination K500 note fail to buy a meal at a hotel or a bag of maize in the village? Already the Reserve Bank of Malawi wants to print a K1,000 note. The official explanation sounds very convincing and very sensible. But lo, even if the K1,000 note is out today, it will still fail to buy a 50 kg of maize. What does the printing of those K1,000 notes mean when each one of them individually can’t even buy a bag of maize? Perhaps, lessons from Zimbabwe are important. Zimbabwe too when hit by high inflation also attempted to salvage the situation by printing their local currency in of all sorts of denominations, but that never rescued their economy.

But what happens when the quantity of money is increased in this manner?  Too much money starts chasing too few goods and the purchasing power of money decreases, which leads to further rise in prices. Whether there is devaluation or not, in such a scenario it should be known that the rise in prices is merely an effect of inflation and the real cause is that the money supply has been overextended.

The loss of confidence in the local currency in Zimbabwe resulted in the ‘dollarisation’ of the economy. The tough speaking Uncle Bob (Robert Mugabe) failed to tame inflation and the dollarisation process was legalised in January 2009, a complete admission that nobody had confidence in the currency of Zimbabwe. Today Zimbabweans conducts businesses in their own country using US dollars, the euro, pounds and rands. Isn’t it ironic that the same leader who denounces and rants against western powers as colonialists uses western currencies when buying food for his family?

What I am twisting?

If Malawi had devalued the Kwacha and secured programmes with IMF and World Bank, reports have it the country stood a chance of benefitting from financial injection of over 500 million US dollars into the economy, and other donors would have unlocked their aid and credit facilities.

But since we hate and reject the bitter pill of devaluation fearing that prices of goods and services will go up, the truth is cost-push inflation, sometimes referred to as "supply shock inflation,” will still kill us.

Because US dollars are acquired on black market at exorbitant rates, those in business pass on the exorbitant prices to consumers. Furthermore, unavailability of forex in our situation is one of the key drivers of cost push inflation or general price increases in our situation.

We should not also ignore that when fuel prices went up recently, other goods also followed suit though there was no devaluation. When government introduced all sorts of funny taxes including those on offals in the much criticised zero-deficit budget, everything else went up in response to the taxes.

What is happening solidifies that cost-push inflation occurs when companies are responding to rising costs (emanating from soaring fuel prices, forex shortage and taxes) by increasing prices to protect their profit margins.

The hatred for Kwacha devaluation can continue up to 2014, but that will not stop high inflation from haunting Malawians. Prices of goods will continue going up with or without devaluation because monetary policies do not exist in a vacuum but in a macro-economic environment, in which they interface with other fiscal policies.  

Unpopular but victorious!

THE TWISTER

BY BRIAN LIGOMEKA

Senegal is planning to hold a second round of presidential elections after the divided opposition failed to kick out incumbent leader Abdoulaye Wade. As a matter of fact it was Wade who was leading with 34.8 percent of the vote.  The main runner up was his former prime minister, Macky Sall, who came second with 26.5 percent. The other dozen opposition leaders split the rest of the votes.

Wade, who has been in power since 2000 and is seeking actually seeking a controversial third term and if the other opposition leaders will not rally behind Sall, the Senegalese leader will bounce back in power and will take advantage of the situation to groom his son, Karim, to succeed him.

Is what is happening in Senegal strange? Not all. Greed and egocentrism is what keep opposition leaders outside power for a long time. If all the opposition leaders had swallowed their pride and selfishness, Sall would have been sworn in as president by now. But because of political egoism and insatiability, Wade might end up ruling them for a third term, and his son will also rule them for three terms. Pure dynasty!

I recently wrote how the divided opposition will lose the 2014 elections? I had phones from my future presidents, all of them pledging that the opposition in Malawi will work together because they have a common enemy. Let me not commit treason by stating here that their common enemy is not a ruling party politician but the twin problem of poor governance and economic crisis.

 Deep-down my heart, I entirely agreed with their view that it is easy to change the regime in 2014 if the opposition leaders unite, but none of them told me that they are ready to support their colleague as a presidential candidate.

As I stated few weeks ago, it is extremely difficult to talk of tangible political alliances in Malawi because it is difficult for Joyce Banda, Atupele Muluzi, John Tembo and Friday Jumbe to accept that they should not be presidential candidates and instead they should support their alliance leader.

I still maintain that most of them are fooled by the undecided voters who wear their party colours at their rallies. Two party presidents challenged me that in their parties, they know their genuine supporters. I could not buy their arguments considering that the parliamentary candidates of both parties lost in Rumphi by elections. If they knew exactly their members they would not have dared to go into a by-election, they knew they would lose.

So the tale of women in my home village who shocked me when they said they have political colours of most parties in the country, which means every party counts them as their members; still hold water. In still believe such political chameleons fool politicians on their party membership and popularity.

In Senegal, there were about a dozen opposition presidential candidates and the incumbent trounced them all. Even for the most popular opposition leader, failed to beat the ruling party’s political machinations to ascend into power in the first round of the poll. The advantage of the incumbency, which is manifested in the control of most state resources and even setting up an apparatus for rigging the elections, worked against the opposition in Senegal. Luckily enough, their Constitution states that the winning president should amass at least 50 percent of the votes. If they did not have that provision, Wade would have been president.

What I am twisting here?

The ambition of those in the opposition is to get into power, unfortunately while most of them can sing about their goal day and night, none of them can tell you five smart strategies they have put in place to achieve their goal. All of them will tell you some cheap strategies such as “the rallies we are addressing are being patronised by many people. That is a sign that we are a popular opposition party geared to win 2014 elections.”

Despite having strategies full of mediocrity, the disorganised and divided opposition parties will cry foul when the elections are won or rigged by the ruling party. This is what is happening in Senegal now. All the opposition leaders hate Wade, but they have been failing to unite to defeat him.

As far as I am concerned winning an election is more than addressing rallies in villages, townships and even at Njamba, Masintha and Katoto Freedom Parks.

The point is Malawians might be tired with the current regime because of its numerous follies manifesting themselves through forex, fuel, drug and food shortages, but they will be let down by the weak and divided opposition in 2014.

With more than ten faces of presidential candidates on the ballot paper, the opposition will split their votes and make the ruling party candidate win the elections with ease.

Imagine there are 4 million eligible voters and the majority of them, 3 million voters want regime change and the minority of them (one million) are ruling party diehards. If there is an opposition alliance, the opposition will win as 3 million voters outnumber the ruling party’s one million voters.

But imagine that Tembo, Atupele, Jumbe, and Banda assume that they are popular opposition figures and can win on their own, what happens? They will share the 3 million opposition votes amongst themselves. On average each one of them will get 750,000 votes. Though the opposition voters in total are 3 million, but in that scenario Peter Mutharika will win because with one million votes, he has beaten them all and simple majority rule demands that he is our next president. This is how opposition parties lose elections in Africa. It is because of the self-centredness and political ravenousness which infuriate their supporters who crave for change.

While most opposition leaders hate alliances if they are not chosen as presidential candidates for their coalitions, their hatred for political cooperation is what sentences them to many years in opposition. Formation of strategic political alliances is one of the strategies of boosting chances of winning an election. Even if the ruling party wants to retain power political alliance is one of the strategies they can use to get some votes from the opposition.

The take home message is that being angry and frustrated with the current regime does not translate into regime change if opposition parties have no tangible strategies. Addressing rallies and shouting slogans for change or future prosperity are not the only strategies that can propel one into power.

Hate it or not, Wade is very unpopular but emerged victorious, courtesy of the divided opposition.

Of leaders and state collapse

THE TWISTER

By Brian Ligomeka & Geoffrey Gomani

The issue of state collapse aroused a lot of interest in the 1990s so much that many political scientists have written on this subject. The literature grew most rapidly because some states were on the brink of collapsing.

Zartman, Boulder & Lynne-Rienner (1995), in Collapsed States—The Disintegration and Restoration of Legitimate Authority, define collapse of a state as a time when “the basic functions of the state are no longer performed as analysed in various theories of the state. While Badie and Birnbaum (1983) has defined state collapse as “...when the decision making centre of government is paralysed and inoperative: good laws are not made, order is not preserved, and societal cohesion is not enhanced”.

Commenting on the subject of state collapse, Gramsci (1967); Hegel (1952); Kean (1988) made a few observations. “Does this pervasive incapacity occur because the state itself collapses as the authoritative political institution? Or because society beneath it has become incapable of providing the support and demands it needs?

Others look at state collapse as the breakdown of good governance, law and order. The state, as a decision making, executing and enforcing institution can no longer take and implement decisions. Societal collapse, on the other hand, is extended breakdown of social coherence: society, as the generator of institutions of cohesion and maintenance, can no longer create, aggregate, and articulate the supports and demands that are foundations of the state. When the state fails to provide the basic resources or overtaxes its citizens, then state collapse is imminent.

There are many countries in Africa where presidents assume more dominant and autocratic disposition and running their countries as their private estates. Their support structures are only out to advise the president on exactly what he would like them to articulate and both the president and his advisors have lost touch with political reality on the ground. The government machinery is in complete denial hence the citizens are paying a heavy price in form of taxes on basic essential goods and cost of life that is moving away.

By deduction, it can also be said there is a form of state collapse, which is associated with a leadership that has turned into an evil or tyrannical institution, in which the necessary balance between coercive and rewarding functions is disrupted in favour of coercion.

Zartman says, “As the long debate over the state as a social contract has brought out individuals in society in creating a state trade in their freedom in exchange for security and constraints. When the state overplays its functions, it loses the willing allegiance and legitimising support of its population.

The events of the early 1990s—the collapse of the ideologised tyranny in the Soviet Union and of constitutional racism in South Africa - support the hypothesis that authoritarianism is the cause of state collapse and that tyranny in the end will destroy its own state. The cloud on this silver-lined conclusion is that society, too, pays the price of tyranny; it is the tyrant’s destruction of the institutions of civil society and any form of opposition that makes the state’s destruction a matter of collapse rather than one of simple replacement.

The state collapse is not a short term phenomenon nor is it a crisis with a few early warning signs but rather a long term degeneration disease whose outcome is inevitable. It is a process that may be likened to the movie version of a car falling slowly, in stages down a cliff—or to the progress of an object tumbling down a staircase, landing and tittering on each step it hits, then either regaining its balance and coming to rest or losing its balance again and bouncing down to the next step, where the exercise is repeated.

Leaders in government going through the process of state collapse have a tendency to view slippery slopes as merely grades on the normally bumpy terrain of politics, making it difficult to focus their attention on the gravity of the problem until it is too late and difficult to prescribe preventive measures or it is far too late to engage in any meaningful dialogue and reconciliation.

Nonetheless, the slippery slope has some notable characters near the bottom and these do serve as ultimate warnings. Five ultimate sign posts that have been identified by various authorities including Yoffee and Cowgill (1988) are:

1.      Power devolves to the peripheries when (because) the centre fights among itself. Those in central power are too busy defending themselves against attacks from their political competitors, the media, civil society and the clergy to hold on to reign of power over the country. Local authority and popular support is up for grabs.

2.       Power withers at the centre by default because central government loses its power base. It no longer pays attention to the needs of its social bases and does not heed advice. The centre instead relies on its inner most trusted circle: this may be an ethnic or regional group, or a functional group or a legal group or such groups operating in cliques unknown to leadership. Attention to the needs and demands of the smaller group diverts allocations from the broader social sources of support (the electorate).

The smaller groupings galvanise their cohesion to the leadership by systematic rumour mongering, malicious gossip against political adversaries, creating fear of the unknown on the leadership, in fighting for greater leadership attention, and get-rich-quick syndrome creeps in sharing limited resources in government.

3.      Government malfunctions by avoiding necessary but difficult choices. As a result, such measures mount in urgency and difficulty, facing the state with a governing crisis. Decisional avoidance can take place either because of institutional incoherence, in which the mechanisms of government are inadequate to their challenges, or because of political flabbiness and inexperience, in which the politicians themselves are incapable of biting the bullet. The effect is the same.

4.       The incumbents practice only defensive and scapegoat politics, fending off challenges, making threats, intimidating, manipulating and arresting political competitors, concentrating on procedural rather than substantive measures and issues. Such measures include both repression and coercion using state machinery, taken to get the opposition and the Civil Society off their back. What is seemingly absent is a political agenda for participation by all and development programmes. The leadership behaviour closes off to alternative views and limits evaluation of alternative ways of resolving problems.

Elections are postponed; platforms for public speech are absent, the media is muzzled and persecuted, civil society is destroyed, the state enters into propaganda phase, and attempts are made to interfere with the judiciary through appointment of Judges on the basis of being cronies or from the same homestead. Further attempts are made to force compliance by the Judiciary through holding back benefits as bargaining strategy.

5.      Probably the ultimate danger sign is when the centre loses control over its own state agents, who begin to operate on their own account. Officials extract payments for their own pockets, and law and order is consistently broken by the agents of law and order, the police become political gangs and brigades serving the interest of just the ruling party.

The antidote to these ultimate signs of state collapse is simply to reverse them. But it is obvious that because of their very nature, reversal is extremely difficult and hard to attain. It might almost be said that, at this point, the process needs to run its full course before a new structure of law and order or legitimate authority can be constructed. This is through a democratic legitimisation process: the ballot box.

Based on the preceding discourse and the various factors that cause a state to collapse, whither Malawi? Is Malawi in a state of collapse? One would answer yes or no depending on whether or not an in-depth analysis has been made. One would, however, encourage objectivity and hindsight knowledge to determine whether Malawi is in a state of collapse or not.  

The crux of the matter starts from a willing acceptance that Malawi is in a crisis. Like all crisis situations, the leadership and the citizenry should embark on a problem-solving approach that is both collaborative and collective. The problem-solving approach should identify the root-causes of the problems rather than addressing symptoms and simply finger-pointing.

Obviously, a leader in a state of collapse must be multi-skilled, flexible; a people-centred person with adequate charisma, with capacity to balance short-term interests with long-term ones and must be an accomplished politician endowed with a sense of resolve and determination. Certainly, a state of collapse has no room for autocrats, bloodthirsty leaders, and scholars of Tit-for-Tat Academy. 

A leopard never changes its spots

THE TWISTER

Brian Ligomeka

Today, I have decided to praise my president, Bingu wa Mutharika for bringing sanity in filling stations. I have just learnt that it was the state president who ordered that petrol attendants should not entertain zigubu mafias who were causing chaos at filling stations, and hence my commendation. Unlike in the past, motorists nowadays are no longer haunted by zigubu hoodlums. Much as the problem of fuel still persists, the orderliness at filling stations impresses me. The president deserves salutation.

As a matter of fact, I am surprised with people who criticise the state president for his alleged arrogance and obstinacy. I am not surprised with his Pan Africanism stand which others mistake for arrogance. Even his announcement in his State of Nation Address that he would like to make experiments with people’s lives in the next three years by trying to find home-grown solutions to our problems never perplexed me.

 To me what Mutharika does is no surprise because his track-record shows that Pan African, the alleged arrogance is his obession. Those who think I am just ranting should read how he was performing as a Secretary General of Comesa. I wanted to embellish the excerpt of the Comesa repor on his performance as a secretary general t with my own comments, but I have decided to reproduce it without my commentary.

The report of the special committe of eminent persons on the operations of Comesa which was presented to the Council of Minister reads in part:

Introduction

The Council of Ministers, having noted with concern the overall state of affairs of COMESA and in particular, the finances and management of the Secretariat, the poor implementation record of the decisions of policy organs by the Secretariat, and the lack of corrective action by the Secretary General despite repeated reminders by the Council; resolved at its Extraordinary Meeting held in Lusaka from 16th to 17th January, 1997 to establish a Special Committee (the Committee) of five eminent persons drawn form Zambia, Kenya, Uganda, Zimbabwe and Zaire, to investigate into and prepare a comprehensive investigative audit and management report for the period beginning 1992 to-date.

Terms of Reference

The Committee was given the following terms of reference: alleged financial malpractices at the Secretariat and the state of finances of the organisation;financial systems and controls at the Secretariat; the efficiency in the management and utilisation of resources at the disposal of the organisation; alleged administrative malpractices, irregularities and practices currently in place within the organisation at the Secretariat, relations between the Secretariat and other Comesa institutions as well with the Member States; ways and means of improving the implementations of the Comesa Policy organs; and generally all measures hat will enhance the stature and image of the organisation.

Composition

The Committee was composed of the following members:Emmanuel Maposa Hachipuka (Zambia) John Muhaise-Bikalemesa (Uganda) Dan Ameyo (Kenya) Jean-jacques Mambe N’gala Masseke (Zaire) Phibian Mashingaidze (Zimbabwe)

Approach

To accomplish the task we read and extensively analysed the provisions of the Treaty, the Staff and Financial Rules and Regulations and other financial and administrative documents made available to us. We interviewed and received oral and written evidence and memoranda from professional and general staff at the Secretariat. We also interviewed and received written submissions from the Chief Executives of Comesa institutions.

We further interviewed the external auditors and the bankers. On the basis of the information available from the documents, interviews and the oral evidence obtained from those interviewed, we set out in the following paragraphs our findings, and recommendations. Details and specific instances of the observations, findings and recommendations are elaborately set out in the main Report.

Findings

*        The financial position of Comesa is extremely poor due to lack of financial support from Member States through prompt payments of Members’ contributions, and failure by the Secretariat to develop an effective a follow-up strategy

*        There is ample evidence of financial malpractices. The Secretary General has used Comesa funds to finance missions which cannot be confirmed to be official and beneficial to Comesa. The Secretary General has also used Comesa resources for personal activities.

 * The PTA Financial Rules and Regulations which are currently in use are inadequate as they have not been further developed to provide the intended effective systems and controls. In addition, there are no formal systems incorporating effective controls;

*The internal audit, which was the only effective control instrument has been scrapped by the Secretary General without the knowledge of the Council; and

*The scope of work of the external auditors as evidenced in the Audit contract has been severely restricted by the Secretary General contrary to the provisions of the Treaty.

*The absence of a development strategy on which annual budgets should be based has led to inefficiency in the management and utilization of Comesa resources. As a result, funds have been utilized in non-priority areas.

* There is no formal organisation structure at the Secretariat. The absence of a well-thought-out and approved organisation structure has enabled the Secretary General to: abolish some departments and redesign others; scrap internal audit of the organisation; fill established positions with consultants; and misplace and misallocate personnel without matching ability with the task to be accomplished.

*The relationship between the Secretary General and Comesa  institutions is strained because of the Secretary General’s demeanor and management style. His desire to have a domineering role in the management of these institutions is one of the causes of the strain. The Secretary General has, as a result, failed to conclude cooperation agreements with these institutions as required by the treaty. He has used funds of some institutions contrary to laid down rules and regulations of the institution(s).

*The Secretary General has failed to develop an effective and beneficial working relationship with Member States by arrogating himself status equivalent to Heads of State and Government thereby treating Ministers and officials responsible for Comesa Affairs as inferior to him.

*There is no mechanism in place to ensure the effective implementation of the decisions of the policy organs. Since 1992, several major decisions remain unimplemented because of the Secretary General’s failure to find time to address the critical areas that need attention.

*The current accommodation facilities of the Secretariat do not match the stature of Comesa as an international organisation. This reflects on the calibre and character of the Secretary General.

The Twister rejoinder is: Are you surprised that Malawi is embroiled in economic mess with Mutharika at the helm as his head of state. Are you surprised that Malawi relationship with some of its key partners is strained? 

I am not surprised be because I am able to get a cue from the statement that reads: “The relationship between the Secretary General and Comesa institutions is strained because of the Secretary General’s demeanour and management style. His desire to have a domineering role in the management of these institutions is one of the causes of the strain. The Secretary General has, as a result, failed to conclude cooperation agreements with these institutions as required by the treaty.”

While I am not surprised by his alleged arrogance, demeanour and management style, I thank him for bringing sanity in filling stations. As we witness his home-grown economic experiments which he intends to conduct from now till he retires to his Ndata Castle in 2014, let’s have a clear picture of the leader we have. Even during his leadership at Comesa, the report clearly states: “The financial position of Comesa is extremely poor due to lack of financial support from Member States through prompt payments of Members’ contributions, and failure by the Secretariat to develop an effective a follow-up strategy.”